2027 Raise Budgets Sit Below Inflation. Plan Your Data Team's Pay Now.

Raise season is here, and the numbers are tight

Many companies settle next year's raise budget in the fall. This year the surveys mostly agree on one number, about 3.5 percent.

Prices are moving faster than that. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 3.7 percent in the 12 months ending September 2026, up from 3.4 percent the month before. The next reading comes out on November 10.

What the 2027 pay surveys say

The Conference Board's annual survey puts the median 2027 salary increase budget at 3.5 percent, the same as 2026. The median merit raise is 3.1 percent, and the rest goes to promotions and pay adjustments meant to keep people.

Payscale surveyed 1,266 organizations and found US employers plan an average raise of 3.5 percent for 2027, after giving an average of 3.4 percent in 2026. In the same survey, 25 percent of employers said they are losing people because pay increases are too small. Payscale also noted that with inflation now matching wage growth, workers may be more open to looking for a new job.

Mercer asked just over a thousand employers in July and found a planned merit raise of 3.2 percent and a total increase of 3.5 percent. At that point 87 percent said their numbers were still preliminary. That means many budgets can still change.

Salary.com surveyed 818 organizations and also landed on an average of 3.5 percent for 2027. It reported higher planned budgets in energy and utilities, at 3.9 percent, and financial services, at 3.8 percent. Those are two industries with a large presence in Oklahoma.

Why data roles need their own look

In the Conference Board survey, employers named the skills that most often drive extra base pay. AI skills came first at 37.8 percent, then leadership at 30.7 percent and data science and advanced analytics at 30.4 percent. In other words, the people who build your reports, pipelines and models are among the people other employers are willing to pay more for.

Small differences add up in a paycheck. Salary.com gave this example. On a $75,000 salary, a 5.5 percent raise is $4,125 a year, or about $159 a paycheck. A 3.0 percent raise is $2,250 a year, or about $87 a paycheck. That is a gap of $72 every payday, and a recruiter can show it to your analyst in one phone call.

How to plan your data team's raises

1. 1List the data people whose leaving would stop work, such as the only person who knows your reporting system or the engineer who keeps your data loads running.
2. 2Check what each of those roles pays in your market today, not what it paid when you hired them.
3. 3Set aside a separate amount for market and retention adjustments before the merit budget is final.
4. 4Look at promotions too. Mercer's survey put promotions at an average of 8.4 percent of employees, and a new title with new pay can keep someone who has outgrown their role.
5. 5Talk to your key people before review season ends. Ask what would make them stay, and listen.
6. 6When you share a raise, explain it in dollars per paycheck and in the full package, including benefits, schedule and growth.
7. 7Plan for the cost of losing someone. Replacing a data analyst or engineer means open time on the work, recruiting costs and months of ramp up for the new hire.

What this means for Oklahoma employers

You may not be able to beat inflation for everyone this year. You can decide on purpose where the money goes, so that the people who would be hardest to replace are not the ones walking out in March.

If you do lose someone, the market will tell you quickly what the role really pays. It is cheaper to learn that before the resignation letter than after. A separate article explains why a data job post should show the pay range. Another article explains why you should ask data people why they stay before they leave.

At Oklahoma Data Partners, we work only with data and only in Oklahoma. We help Oklahoma employers understand what data analysts and engineers expect to be paid today and find strong people when a seat opens. If you want to plan your data team's pay or hiring for 2027, book a consultation.